Four states are in play tomorrow-Vermont, Rhode Island, Texas and Ohio. Bad weather is predicted to hit Ohio-which should act as a vote suppressor. Vote suppression ought to swing in Hillary's favor because I think the older voters are more committed to voting. Add into the mix: Rush is telling Ohio Republicans to vote for Hillary in order to keep this race going.
That being said, I predict Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont will go for Obama and Hillary will squeak a win out of Ohio. I think Ohio will be fairly close-within 2-3%. Vermont and Texas ought to be Obama blow outs. Rhode Island will probably be a close but clear Obama win.
The next question would be: Does Senator Clinton drop out under these conditions?
I think no. If she has any validation from the voters for the latest tack she's taken with her campaign, the Kitchen Sink strategy, I think she will stay in. And the race will continue to get a lot uglier.
That's my 2 cents...
FRIDAY 'ROUND-THE-HORN: ANTI-CHOICE WITH A (REALLY BAD) EXPLANATION EDITION.
-
*Friend of mine alerted me. This is the kind of goofy shit I love.*
Yeah, I missed last week’s edition. I offer no apologies. It’s been a long
time betwe...
6 days ago
3 Comments:
Good afternoon Mr. Bold. What about this scenario. If Clinton wins Ohio AND Texas, can the Super delegates be swayed her way? Will the Michigan and Florida wins, although not seated, factor into this process? I still do not understand super delegates. Are they suppose to rubber stamp the primary outcomes? I know they are rewards for long-term elevated politicos but what if any are their real function? Does the G.O.P. have super delegates? Thank you in advance for responding to my comments. By the way, it is snowing in the Heartland.
If Clinton wins both Ohio and Texas, this would be a whole new race. The superdelegates seem to be on the fence about this themselves given how many have defected to Obama. And that I think is the role of the superdelegates, that is to shorten the primary process aka the circular firing squad.
Both parties have these special people that they seat as delegates that are beyond the pledged primary delegates. The Dems differ in that they call them superdelegates. Also the amount of superdelegates with the Dems varies from year to year. The Republicans have a fixed amount superdelegates which seems to 3 per state.
Repub rules
The creation of the superdelegates by the Dems was a response to the process created by the McGovern-Fraser Commission which created our primary proces. The party bosses apparently felt their role was diminished in the new process.
Dem rules
Now back to Clinton and Obama. After last Super Tuesday, this race was effectively over. There really wasn't anyway for Hillary Clinton to come back from ll losses and a 160 odd delegate difference. She needed to blow out Ohio and Texas tonight to have a chance to make up that count. If Obama tied her just one of either, mathematically he is the winner.
For those number crunchers out there I'd recommend reading
Jon Alter talks math.
Sorry did I say "a whole new race"? I meant more of the same nasty slog we've been experiencing for the last 2 weeks.
Post a Comment